Rabobank’s Dairy Quarterly Q1 2020: The Corona Hangover

The upward trajectory in global dairy product prices visible in Q4 2019, stalled in Q1 2020. The onset of the coronavirus in China and the permeation across the globe have buyers and sellers scrambling to assess the market impact, according to the latest RaboResearch Dairy Quarterly titled “The Corona Hangover”.

“Global dairy commodity prices have already priced-in the uncertainty,” says Michael Harvey, RaboResearch Senior Dairy Analyst. “But a less-than-favorable expected finish to the New Zealand production season is providing some price support.”

Rabobank anticipates China’s consumer buying patterns to normalize by 2H 2020, with evidence of improvement in some supply chains already visible. The risk of a setback or a delayed economic recovery in China presents a major downward price risk to Rabobank’s current forecasts.

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