Prince & Prince Forecast 49 Million U.S. Households To Make Floral Purchases for Valentine’s Day 2020

Special Note:  This Prince & Prince (P&P) floral market report utilizes the updated U.S. household projections for 2018 to 2028 from estimates determined by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University (McCue, 2018) that makes periodic adjustments for factors that affect household formation (e.g. immigration, income, etc.).  The latest update of the P&P U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey was recently completed, and those updated household floral purchasing estimates for Valentine’s Day are used in this reporting (Prince & Prince, 2020).  P&P thank the four research co-sponsors for their financial support in making this consumer floral research possible.  The four P&P research co-sponsors are Smithers-Oasis, North America (Kent, OH), Green Circle Growers (Oberlin, OH), Silver Vase (Homestead, FL) and The Gems Group (Miami, FL).

Prince & Prince, Inc. (P&P), a leader in market research focused on the floral and green plant industries, has released a projection for the number of U.S. households that will make floral purchases for Valentine’s Day 2020, and an estimate for the total retail value of Valentine’s Day floral purchasing by consumers in the U.S.  This most celebrated romantic day, Valentine’s Day, is Friday, February 14th, and on this day, over 49 million U.S. households (49.3 million) will have made one or more fresh floral purchases to celebrate love, romance, and “hugs & kisses” with significant people in their lives, in or out of the household.   And a floral gift is one of the best ways to say “I love you!” on this special day.  The P&P U.S. consumer floral aggregate spending projection for Valentine’s Day 2020 is $3.3 billion dollars at retail, including all fresh floral products (fresh cut flowers, including roses, arrangements, bouquets, bunches, single stems, and corsages, and indoor potted flowering and foliage plants & planters) and any associated delivery/ service fees.   While this projected market value for

Valentine’s Day 2020 is considered large, it is actually about $200 million lower than P&P’s 2019 Valentine’s Day market projection (Prince & Prince, 2019a), due largely to shifts in consumer shopping patterns among the various floral channels.   In general, some consumer households have shifted from higher service, customized design, and higher-priced floral purchases at traditional retail florist businesses to more self-service, standardized design, and lower-priced floral offerings provided at numerous massmarket and Internet-based floral businesses.   While the overall floral market expands in household numbers, with more floral buyers for this Valentine’s Day, the shifts in household purchasing at the various floral channels dilutes the historical average dollars spent per household on floral, thus lowering somewhat the projected floral market value at retail for Valentine’s Day 2020.

According to P&P market survey estimates, Valentine’s Day is still the second largest “floral holiday” for the U.S. floral industry, in terms of consumer dollar spending on floral products (largely roses), with floral spending second only to Mother’s Day.  

P&P’s 2019 Mother’s Day floral projection was over $4 billion (Prince & Prince, 2019b).  

P&P also project that each floral-purchasing household, on average, will spend just over $67 on floral products for Valentine’s Day 2020, including all household members that make a floral purchase, with associated delivery/ service fees included.  

About the P&P U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey The P&P consumer floral research has two key objectives: 1) identify and track consumer floral demand for specific holidays, events, occasions, and for year-round selfpurchase and home decoration, and 2) provide a consumer tracking evaluation of instore (and web site) floral product offerings, services, and in-store merchandising of the various floral businesses.  To support the first objective, the research identifies the types of consumers who buy fresh floral products, what they buy, where they buy, when they buy, why they buy, & how much they spend on fresh cut flowers & indoor potted flowering and foliage plants.  P&P has been tracking U.S. consumer floral purchasing behavior for Valentine’s Day, and floral purchasing for more than 20 holidays, events, and occasions over the past two decades with their periodic surveys of floral-buying households (Prince & Prince, 2020).  Thus, P&P is able to identify salient consumer floral-purchasing trends over time for the industry.  P&P can examine floral purchasing trends for specific holidays, events, and occasions overall, and purchasing for specific consumer demographic segments (age, income, educational attainment, U.S. regions, etc.).  With this robust and comprehensive database of several thousand randomlyselected floral-buying household over seven time periods, P&P has the ability to model, track, and make fairly accurate trend projections for the numerous floral metrics captured in the survey.  P&P can relay these historical product and occasion purchasing trends and forecasts to their clients in the floral industry, who can then incorporate this salient market information into their business and marketing strategies.

To accomplish the second objective of the research, the P&P survey has a section devoted to a comprehensive evaluation of the floral businesses used by the household, and measures of the household’s fresh cut flower and potted plant purchasing at each business.  The survey also measures customer satisfaction, loyalty, and the household’s future purchasing intentions with the businesses rated.  P&P categorizes each floral business rated into one of 11 defined channels (e.g. florist shop, supermarket, super-discounter, Internet/ 800-Number, home/ hardware center, garden center, wholesale club, etc.), and then profiles the perceived strengths and weaknesses of each floral channel based on the consumer ratings of the businesses.  For each survey period, P&P obtains over 2,500 floral business evaluations, with each evaluation comprising 30-attribute ratings of the floral business.  The latest P&P consumer survey employed a “mixed-mode” methodology, utilizing both mail and Internet-based survey methods, now deemed essential to obtain the most representative and valid consumer survey information (Dillman et. al., 2014).

P&P research co-sponsors receive the floral market information first thru a oneday, on-site seminar with Q&A, and the complete 800+ slide market research presentation on a flash drive for future reference.  Co-sponsors also receive exclusivity of the floral market information for a one-year period, following completion of the research.   P&P will be offering a one-day, on-site seminar of the 2020 consumer floral research to members of the floral industry beginning in March 2021.  Interested companies should contact P&P to make sure that P&P is on the seminar calendar for ‘21.

Literature Cited

Dillman, D.A., Smyth, J.D. and Christian, L.M. (2014). Internet, Phone, Mail, and MixedMode Surveys (Fourth Edition). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

McCue, D. (2018).  JCHS Updated Household Growth Projections: 2018 – 2028 and 2028 – 2038.  Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.

Prince, T.L. and Prince, T.A. (2020).  The 2020 Prince & Prince U.S. Consumer Floral Tracking Survey  (On-Site Seminar with Q&A).  Columbus, OH: Prince & Prince, Inc.

Prince, T.L. and Prince, T.A. (2019a).  Prince & Prince Project a $3.5 Billion Dollar U.S.

Consumer Floral Market for Valentine’s Day 2019. (P&P Market Report). Columbus, OH: Prince & Prince, Inc.

Prince, T.L. and Prince, T.A. (2019b).  Prince & Prince Project a $4.5 Billion Dollar U.S.

Consumer Floral Market for Mother’s Day 2019.  (P&P Market Report).  Columbus, OH: Prince & Prince, Inc.

About the Authors

Drs. Tom and Tim Prince, formerly of The Ohio State University, are brothers and co-founders of Prince & Prince, Inc. (P&P), a leading marketing research specialist in the floral and green plant industries.    P&P has completed more than 75 major marketing research projects and countless reports for the floral industry in the U.S., and has also conducted floral market projects in Canada, and in Europe.  P&P has research experience in both experimental research design & analysis and in survey research design & analysis, and often combine both research domains in the conduct of P&P floral research for their clients.  P&P conceptualize, design, and implement market research projects for floral companies and floral associations up and down the entire floral channel.  For more information, visit the web site at www.FloralMarketResearch.com, or e-mail Tom at [email protected]