USDA Retail Food-Inflation Forecasts For 2010 & 2011

In 2010, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food is projected to increase 0.5 to 1.5 percent–the lowest annual food inflation rate since 1992. Food-at-home (grocery store) prices are also forecast to increase 0.5 to 1.5 percent, while food- away-from-home (restaurant) prices are forecast to increase 1 to 2 percent.

The all-food CPI increased 1.8 percent between 2008 and 2009. Food-at-home prices increased by 0.5 percent–the lowest annual increase since 1967–with dairy prices declining 6.4 percent and fresh produce prices dropping 4.6 percent, while food-away-from- home prices rose 3.5 percent in 2009.

Although inflation has been relatively weak for most of 2009 and 2010, higher food commodity and energy prices have recently exerted pressure on wholesale and retail food prices. Hence, food inflation is predicted to accelerate during the first half of 2011, leading to a forecast of 2 to 3 percent food price inflation in 2011.

To read the rest of this story please go to: Bloomberg