Cocoa may rebound as much as 14 percent should an extended political standoff in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest supplier, prolong an export ban into May, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
Exports, accounting for 34 percent of global supply, were banned Jan. 24 by Alassane Ouattara, the internationally recognized winner of disputed presidential elections. The decree, combined with a lack of financing and trade restrictions imposed by the European Union in January, meant a 99 percent slump in the registration of beans for shipment in the two weeks ended March 3, the latest port data show.
Cocoa has risen 18 percent since the November elections, adding pressure to world food prices the United Nations says reached a record last month. Ouattara this week extended the ban until the end of the month. Another extension may take it into the mid-crop, the smaller of two annual harvests that starts in April.
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