The sheer anticipation for the coming Northwest cherry crop may be the greatest ever. It seems almost palpable. The situation with China appears to be easing in time for our start of harvest next week, and an unfortunately light California crop has limited U.S. retail sales. Fortunately for everyone, the wait is almost over.
In this update, we'll go through what we know, what we think, and what we guess will come with the 2018 crop. Much of our pre-season estimate data comes from the industry itself. Our field estimate team looks at nearly 3/4 of the industry's orchards in one way or another. But even with volunteer boots on the ground across the Northwest, we're still compiling data on one of the fastest bloom-to-market crops. Over a series of 4 estimates, we refine our overall crop projection number as well as the details of how we anticipate this crop to materialize.
NWCG Crop Estimate: 23 million 20-pound box equivalents
But as any grower knows, data only gets you so far. Fortunately, our annual big tent meeting in May brought together feedback from growers and industry across the five Northwest states. This gut-check estimate often proves to be the most aligned with the curve of the crop. Taking their input and crop observations, along with the data collected for the Round 2 field estimate (which indicated a crop of 23 million boxes) and the initial crop picture projected in Round 1, and we still feel that the initial estimate is healthy. Averaged together, we are estimating a Northwest fresh sweet cherry crop in the 23 million
Timing is the second part of the critical equation of cherry promotion. Field reports generally reported fewer flowers per bud, which typically translates into more energy distributed into fewer cherries per tree. This has been reported across varieties. So while that typically translates into bigger and better fruit, it impacts the total production and overall shipping velocities by region and variety.
The Northwest was spared from heavy winter damage for the most part, but those orchards that were effected are more likely to be located in the earliest blocks in the earliest areas. So while we expect harvest to begin this weekend in a few orchards and on Monday in earnest, we'll likely see a slow start for the first few days. This is typical. Every year, including our two record breakers, our industry needs 10 to 14 days to begin reaching the 200,000 boxes-a-day mark.
Further Timing-Related Projections
Based on shipper estimates and individual grower records, we continue to expect some early fruit during the first week of June with Chelan volume ramping up significantly during the second week.
If all of these patterns continue, we will see significant volumes available to retailers in time for their June ads…especially the June 27th break prior to the Holiday.
We're anticipating a first peak in shipments to occur around June 25th, with a solid shipping curve for several weeks until mid-July, peaking again during the transition between middle and late season districts somewhere near the 20th of July.
The chart below shows a similar accumulation in the Yakima Valley (Harrah) and Tri-Cities growing districts. For reference, in 2015 and 2016 we shipped for at least a week in the month of May. Last season (2017) we didn't begin shipping until the eighth of June.
The Yakima Valley had an earlier start to the year, and have maintained that heat advantage. Given that, we expect to see both regions begin picking along similar timelines which in turn should make more fruit available to retailers from the outset. This should be welcome news to retailers, who are hungry to ramp up their cherry dollars for the summer.
Note that GDD accumulation in later-producing districts like Parkdale, Brewster Flats and Wenatchee Heights is considerably behind the Northwest's early regions. In fact, the separation between early and late bloom is as large as we’ve seen in a decade. This strengthens the likelihood that we’ll see a solid late season opportunity this year. The current estimate projects nearly 2 million boxes to be shipped in August, which allows for several opportunities for retailers to promote. "Last Chance" and countdown-style promotions have shown in study after study to be the single most effective late season cherry promotion. The recipe for a strong final category push includes circular ads and P.O.P. messages which encourage consumers to buy while they can and freeze for off-season use.
The 2018 crop on the trees gives every indication of a fantastic season to come for growers and retailers alike. Make sure your departments are ready for the arrival of the Northwest crop to take advantage of the "Light" cherry shopper. While they may typically buy only 1 bag per season, their impact results in a 65% increase in cherry dollar sales when they begin to buy. Unfortunately for most retailers, those light buyers are the impulse buyers who may or may not know Northwest cherries are available. So to expand that dollar boost back into June, make sure your cherry customers know that the Northwest crop has arrived! If you'd like help promoting that message, contact your Northwest Cherries representative today.
Source: The Northwest Cherry Growers