Index Fresh: Crowded US Avocado Market Forecasted to Cool Last Year’s Hot Prices

Corona, C.A. — Index Fresh Reflects on 2022 and Takes the Temperature of 2023

Heavy volumes of avocado imports are expected in the US in 2023, which has industry experts anticipating a more saturated market than the avocado-lite 2022. Avocado packer and marketer Index Fresh is working to keep California growers informed and positioned to benefit from the best possible pricing windows amid potentially crowded market conditions.

“Avocados are the produce section darlings,” said Index Fresh CEO Steve Roodzant. “Last year, avocado shortages drove prices up and resulted in California growers collecting a phenomenal $1.76 per pound for their delicious fruit. This year, heavy supply is likely to push prices lower.”

Index Fresh CEO Steve Roodzant

The 2022 avocado market was defined by a light avocado crop out of Mexico. In contrast, this year’s crop is large, and Mexico expects to export 16% more avocado volume into the US in 2023. Since over 80% of the avocados consumed annually in the US are from Mexico, changes to Mexico’s crop size have a major impact on the US avocado market.

In total, the US is expected to consume 3 billion pounds of avocados in 2023—a record breaking volume made up of imports from Mexico, Peru, Colombia and Chile, as well as domestic production of California avocados.

According to pre-season crop estimates from the California Avocado Commission, the state is on track to harvest approximately 257 million pounds of avocados in 2023, 7% fewer pounds than 2022. Given heavy avocado volumes out of Mexico, this year’s California season is expected to launch with light harvesting in January then increase to peak harvest in April through July. Though California’s share of the market is less than 10% overall, the spring and summer harvest typically serves an important role by filling a low-volume window that opens during Mexico’s lighter months.

Keith Blanchard, Index Fresh’s California Field Manager

“Additionally, California avocados traditionally occupy a special market niche thanks to their excellent quality and the value that consumers increasingly place on locally sourced produce,” said Keith Blanchard, Index Fresh’s California Field Manager. “The baseline price of avocados may be lower now than at the start of 2022, but we are confident that California avocados will continue to fetch a premium in 2023.”

ABOUT INDEX FRESH

Index Fresh is a global marketer of avocados, sourcing from all major growing regions around the world, including California, Mexico, Peru, Chile, and Colombia. Through its dedication to quality, consistency, and innovation, Index Fresh continues to be a leader in the industry. Over the years the company has earned its reputation for quality and integrity with an unwavering commitment to honesty, hard work, and providing outstanding results to their partners — growers and trade alike. Headquartered in California, the company has facilities spread across Texas, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, and Illinois. Index Fresh started operations at its packing, bagging, and ripening facility in Pharr, TX, in 2018.