Prognosfruit 2023 is currently taking place in Trentino, Italy, gathering more than 300 delegates from the apple and pear sector from Europe and beyond. During the first sessions of the conference, the apple and pear crop forecast estimates for the upcoming season were released.
In 2023, the apple production in the EU for the top producing countries contributing to the forecast is estimated to decrease by 3,3% compared to last year, to a total of 11.410.681 t. However, this year’s crop is in line with the average of the previous 3 years (+0,3%). Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious is set to increase by 11,7% to a total of 2.167.899 t. Gala, the second-largest variety, is expected to grow by 4,8% (1.527.179 t in total). Both Red Delicious and Idared, on the other hand, are expected to decrease in production (-10% and -6,1% respectively).
The EU pear crop for 2023 is estimated to decrease by 12,9% compared to last year’s crop with a total of 1.745.632 t. This decline is due to the stark decrease in Italy’s production (-63% compared to 2022) as well as a reduction in the French and Dutch volumes (-28,6% and -3,1% respectively). In 2023, the production of Conference pears is estimated to increase by 8%, reaching 928.081 t. William BC pear production, on the other hand, is expected to decrease by 36,8%, while Abate Fetel’s production is forecasted to plummet to 52.846 t (-69.3%)
The European trends are similar to those of other countries in the Northern Hemisphere, such as China (whose apple crop will stay stable at 37,2 million t), while the US is expecting an apple crop of 4,5 million t (3,6% down from 2022). India’s apple crop is also expected to decrease by more than 30% (1,9 million t in total). Pear production in the US is forecasted to decline by 3,7% (502.000 t in total), while China’s is projected to increase by 10% (17,6 million t).
WAPA Secretary General Philippe Binard commented on the forecast figures: “The season is starting on a positive background based on a relatively low crop, no overlap with the Southern Hemisphere, empty stocks from the previous season, and the ongoing renovation of orchards”. He added: “We will need to continue monitoring the climatic conditions, as well as mitigating pests and diseases, while dealing with geopolitical and market access issues”. Looking to the future, Binard concluded: “There will be great opportunities to stimulate apple and pear consumption in the upcoming season, while raising the prices to match the quality and the environmental, nutritional, and health benefits of apples and pears”.
